Other Quantification Methods: A Step-by-Step Guide

Author

Udeshi Salgado

Published

September 27, 2026

← Back to the main article

Use when: the consumption, morbidity and demographic methods do not fit.

Service statistics

Use for: diagnostics such as malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and laboratory tests.

Assumptions: eligible patients from registers; testing policy; allowance for repeat and invalid tests; expected change in patient numbers.

Procedure:

  1. Eligible patients (last year) × expected change.
  2. × share to be tested under the testing policy.
    • allowance for repeat and invalid tests.
  4. Convert to kits; add safety stock; subtract stock on hand and on order.

Example: 18,000 febrile patients, +5% growth, all tested, 5% allowance, kits of 25.

Step Calculation Result
Expected patients 18,000 × 1.05 18,900
Tests incl. allowance 18,900 × 1.05 19,845 tests
Kits 19,845 ÷ 25, rounded up 794 kits

Proxy consumption

Use for: new facilities, or facilities that failed to report.

Assumptions: a genuinely comparable reference site; a scaling basis (population or visits); a ramp-up period.

Procedure:

  1. Reference consumption per 1,000 population.
  2. × target site population ÷ 1,000.
  3. Adjust for ramp-up.

Example: a reference centre serving 25,000 people uses 30,000 iron and folic acid tablets per month (1,200 per 1,000). A new centre serving 15,000 needs 15 × 1,200 = 18,000 tablets per month, lower while attendance builds.

Budget-based projection

Use for: checking affordability and prioritising when funds are fixed.

Procedure:

  1. Expected patient contacts × average medicine cost per contact.
  2. Compare with the available budget.
  3. If short, prioritise using the VEN classification.

Example: 40,000 visits × USD 0.80 = USD 32,000. With USD 25,000 available, about 78% of need is funded.

Key considerations

  • Service statistics depend on complete registers.
  • Proxy sites must be truly comparable.
  • Budget-based projection shows affordability, not need.
Acknowledgement and further learning

Based on the online course on forecasting and quantifying medicines and health products offered by i+academy; all credit belongs to the course and its facilitators. For a fuller understanding, enrol in the course on i+academy.

Other guides in this series: Consumption method · Morbidity method · Demographic method